OLS Spatial Regression for Teen Pregnancy Rates and various explanatory variables, Four-Corner States, 2018

OLS Spatial Regression for Teen Pregnancy Rates and various explanatory variables, Four-Corner States, 2018

This evaluates teen pregnancy rates (number of births per 1,000 female population ages 15-19) in the Four-Corner states, 2018

This evaluates teen pregnancy rates (number of births per 1,000 female population ages 15-19) in the four-corner states. It looks at various factors that might explain the rates -- high school graduation rates, percent of children living in a household headed by a single parent, percent of the population living below the poverty level, rates of attendance to Evangelical congregations, rates of attendance to Latter-day Saint congregations, rates of attendance to Catholic congregations, percentage of the population who is Hispanic, percentage of the population who is American Indian/Alaska Native, and population density. Each of these characteristics is analyzed at the county-level in the four-corners states for 2018.

An ordinary least squares regression was run on these variables to determine significance and model performance.

From our rates data, we would be led to believe that LDS rates in Utah would correspond with a negative relationship with teen pregnancies; however, our OLS output shows a slight positive correlation. More work needs to be done to accurately understand these results.

Maren Gordon

All rates were found on a county level for the 4-corners states.
Teen Pregnancy/High School Graduation/Children in Single-Parent Household: County Health Rankings.
Base Map/Percent Below Poverty Level/Percent Hispanic/American Indian/Alaska Native/Population Density: United States Census Bureau
Rates Attendance Evangelical/LDS/Catholic: Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA)

Website maintained by Chantel Sloan, Associate Professor in the Public Health Department at Brigham Young University.

All data comes from 2018 rates; high school graduation data (obtained from 2020), and religious data (obtained from 2010) are exceptions.

Maren Gordon
Aid from Chantel Sloan and Jenna Shaw

All datasets are publicly available through County Health Rankings, the US Census, and the Association of Religion Data.

PDf

English

Map file generated using ArcGIS Pro 2.7.1
Additional Analysis was done using GeoDa 1.18

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah counties are shown and analyzed. Data outside of this area may not have similar results and should therefore be analyzed with caution.