OLS Regression Analysis for Violent Crime in 2018 in AZ, CO, UT, NM by County Subdivision

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Title

OLS Regression Analysis for Violent Crime in 2018 in AZ, CO, UT, NM by County Subdivision

Subject

This is a map of the residuals of an OLS regression as well as statistical results and a description. The regression is between violent crime per 10,000 people and 5 explanatory variables: percent below poverty,
median income, percent with bachelor's degree above 25, percent Caucasian, and percent male between age 18-25

Description

Residual colors on the map show where the true data values are either higher or lower than the predicted values from the regression, Lighter coloring (like yellow and light orange) shows where predicted values were smaller than true data, and darker (red/maroon) shows where the values are larger. The Moran's I looks for clustering, and the other information describes the map and analysis. This statistical analysis of the map shows a strong correlation between percent male between percent below poverty and violent crime, with a higher percent below poverty leading to more violent crime (p=.02). There is also some correlation between violent crime and percent male ages 18-25, although it is not truly significant. In turn, the best explanatory variables vary for violent crime and property crime.

Creator

Brad Wangsgard

Source

Poverty Data: US Census Data downloaded from the US Census Data website in November 2020
Income Data: US Census Data downloaded from the US Census Data website in November 2020
Education Data: US Census Data downloaded from the US Census Data website in November 2020
Race Data: US Census Data downloaded from the US Census Data website in November 2020
Age/Gender Data: US Census Data downloaded from the US Census Data website in November 2020
Crime Data: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Data Tables from the FBI UCR website for each state from 2018. Downloaded in November 2020
County Subdivisions: Downloaded from TIGERLINE Shapefiles in November 2020

Publisher

Website maintained by Chantel Sloan, Associate Professor in the Public Health Department at Brigham Young University

Date

All data shown comes from 2018

Contributor

Brad Wangsgard

Format

PDF

Language

English

Type

Map file generated by ArcGis Pro

Coverage

This map covers Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico as broken up by county subdivision. Areas that did not report crime data in 2018 were not included.

Files

vcfinal.pdf

Reference

Brad Wangsgard, OLS Regression Analysis for Violent Crime in 2018 in AZ, CO, UT, NM by County Subdivision, Website maintained by Chantel Sloan, Associate Professor in the Public Health Department at Brigham Young University, All data shown comes from 2018